Basic Study on Prevention of Human Error-Anchoring Bias in Relationship between Objective and Subjective Probability-
Authors: Atsuo MURATA, Makoto MORIWAKA
Abstract: This study empirically identified the relationship between the objective and the subjective probabilities, and confirmed whether the relationship corresponded with the hypothesized weighting function proposed in prospect theory. As a result, it was found that the experimentally identified relationship between the objective and the subjective probabilities corresponded with the hypothetical weighting function above. In other words, the estimated number of deaths was underestimated for moderate and high number of deaths, while the estimated number of deaths was overestimated for the small or rare number of deaths. Moreover, in order to examine how cognitive bias occurred in the estimation of number of deaths for a variety of deaths and accidents, it was discussed whether the different anchor biased the relationship above. The estimated numbers of deaths were remarkably affected by the anchor, and the estimated numbers of deaths for the group given the anchor A (large number of deaths) was larger than that for the group given the anchor B (small number of deaths). Some implications for risk management were given from the perspective of cognitive biases.
Keywords: Subjective Probability, Underestimation, Overestimation, Prospect Theory, Anchoring Bias
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