Basic Study on Prevention of Human Error - Debiasing Method of Cognitive Biases in Decision Making -

Abstract

Cognitive biases potentially and unexpectedly induce crucial disasters such as Three Mile Island disaster and Challenger space shuttle disaster. This study explored how cognitive biases can be eliminated by paying attention to the characteristics or properties of each bias. The following cognitive biases were used to discuss the effectiveness of debiasing method of cognitive biases: ignorance of base rate, regression to mean, conjunction fallacy, framing effect, illusion of covariation, and overconfidence. In other words, the effectiveness of debiasing methods of these biases in decision making was experimentally discussed. The debiasing methods presented in this study were effective to some extent for suppressing the biases (conjunction fallacy, ignorance of base rate, and regression to mean) to some extent. However, for some cognitive biases (framing effect, fallacy of covariation, and overconfidence), the debiasing methods in this study were not necessarily effective. Some implications for the prevention of crucial human errors and accidents were given from the viewpoints of cognitive biases included in disastrous accidents.

Keywords: Fallacy of Conjunction, Ignorance of Base Rate, Regression to Mean, Framing Effect, Illusion of Covariance, Overconfidence

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe100206