Towards Modeling and Predictive Analysis of Emergent Behavior of Intelligent Transportation System of Systems

Abstract: Transportation systems are at the foundation of economies – cost effectively, safely, and sustainably moving people, goods, and ideas locally, regionally, nationally and globally. The current U.S.A. national transportation system is composed of land, water, and aerospace services. The individual systems supporting these services are large scale and complex, involving numerous stakeholders (e.g., citizens, planning, operations, maintenance, manufacturers/developers, regulators, public safety) and technical standards (e.g., Traffic Management Data Dictionary, National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol). The demands on these systems are growing rapidly; to support these impending needs a vision for the future of transportation has been proposed: an integrated, international, intermodal, inclusive, intelligent, and innovative system of systems (SoS), with multiple interfaces and shared information and infrastructure elements. In this collaborative research project, we propose to define a standards-based approach that supports their modeling, simulation, and predictive analysis, with particular focus on the emergent behavior of the SoS. We view the emergent behavior problem from a component-based systems engineering perspective: how to represent, select, compose, and analyze the individual systems and the overall composition of the SoS. The research is being conducted in the context of an Intelligent Transportation Simulation Game, to make it feasible for the academic environment and appealing to students. Here, we present our preliminary work to establish a well-structured prototype SoS for the simulation game, which will be used to explore the research questions with a concrete, example system. The prototype SoS currently includes the game system and four small, independent transportation systems (rail, car, bus, pedestrian), providing multiple routes for a commuter to travel to work. Although simple, the prototype provides a foundation to build upon in the next steps of the project.

Keywords: System of Systems, Modeling, Simulation, Predictive Analysis, Intelligent Transportation

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe100124

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