Forecasting of Evolution System the Driver – A Vehicle – Transport Network – Environment
Authors: Viktor Dolia, Igor Ivanov, Iaroslav Sanko, Denis Pankratov, Yevhen Kush
Abstract: The purpose of the article is method perfecting of the evolutionary probabilistic modeling that takes into account changes in the environment and the impact on all members of «the driver – a vehicle – transport network – environment». This allows to predict the evolution of any technical system with a variable environment. In work was established that the periods duration at locked state within each evolution stage of the system decreases. The disconnected state periods duration increases according to geometric progression. Also, the environment impact does not release system was determined. The environmental factors was analyzed. The gross domestic product was set like the key factor. As a result, any changes the transition environment probability in a given factual situation. It is possible to get a new model for determining the predictive values. Completed in 2006 forecast the evolution of «the driver – a vehicle – transport network – environment» (for example, in Kharkiv tram) had a valid value. As confirmed prediction verification data of 2007-2012 years. Transition probability model from the initial state to the final is refined. The proposed method allowed to apply evolutionary probabilistic modeling including a changing environment. This allows obtaining more reliable predictions of the evolution of any technical system.
Keywords: forecast, evolution, system, state, probability, verification
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