Cognitive Mapping of Strategic Development in the Agricultural Sector

Abstract: Planning of agricultural company strategic development requires considering the influence of qualitative factors of a different nature. The problem of finding possible scenarios, identifying the causes of problematic situations and ways of their solution requires formalizing the expert knowledge, which is expressed by qualitative assessments and concepts. Formalization of semi structured scenarios of a company’s strategic development based on expert knowledge is possible using cognitive maps. The article reviews applications of cognitive mapping for decision making in the agricultural sector. The basic qualitative factors influencing strategic development of agricultural company are revealed. The cognitive map describing strategic development of an agricultural company is presented.The rapid development of information technologies and digitalization poses new challenges for agricultural enterprises in Russia. Agricultural enterprises face the following tasks: increasing the export of agricultural products, creating end-to-end chains from the producer to the end consumer, based on digital technologies such as blockchain, the Internet of Things and the use of Big Data, increasing labor productivity and maximizing profits. It is expected that digitalization in agriculture will lead to the creation of optimal production and logistics chains that will unite retail and wholesale trading companies, agricultural producers, and their suppliers into a single structure with adaptive management. The digital transformation of agriculture will also create the necessary conditions for private investment in the development of platforms and applications for agricultural producers, and the activation of agricultural consulting. The implementation of Big Data analytical platforms for all verticals of the agro-industrial complex will allow receiving and processing huge amounts of information, as well as predicting crop yields and climate risks more effectively. Efficiency growth is expected from the implementation of digital technologies directly into production: robotics, the purchase of ‘smart equipment’, satellites and drones, automated irrigation systems and greenhouses. The distribution process will completely change due to the digitalization of sales, full traceability of the product path from the manufacturer to consumers based on blockchain and electronic exchanges for the sale of agricultural products. However, there are many obstacles on the way to digitalization. For instance, the level of development of digital skills of the Russian Federation population is still much lower than in developed countries. Building a long-term strategy of development of an agricultural company under these conditions requires considering quantitative, structural, stochastic factors, as well as qualitative, factors of various nature. Moreover, you need to consider the interaction of factors and analyze the possible development of the situation in dynamics. The appropriate method for solving this task is cognitive mapping. In this research we offer an approach to strategic planning based on fuzzy cognitive mapping and present the cognitive map of strategic development of an agricultural company that has a network of greenhouse complexes in Russia.

Keywords: Cognitive Maps, Strategic Development, Agricultural Sector, Scenario Analysis, Intelligent Information Technologies

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe100995

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