Big Data Analysis in Vehicular Market Forecasts for Business Management
Authors: Lloyd Morris, Homero Murzi, Hernan Espejo, Olga Jamin Salazar De Morris, Juan Luis Arias Vargas
Abstract: Information in various markets constitutes the primary basis for making the right decisions in a modern and globalized world. Therefore, opportunities grow based on the availability of data and how the data is structured to obtain information that supports decision-making processes, Ogrean (2018) and Neubert (2018), and even more so when business dynamics revolve around satisfying the demand for the products or services offered, Jacobs and Chase (2009). This article proposes the analysis of the new vehicle market, through operational research techniques, addressing the behavior of vehicle sales for medium and long-term projections for business management. The analysis is developed through Markov Chains and time series analysis techniques, so a complementary approach is used to obtain predictions in future scenarios such as analysis in sales levels related to market shares. Choi et al (2018), indicate that one of the important applications of Big Data in business management is in the field of demand forecasts, becoming one of the common alternatives in prediction for data series over time. The data is taken from Statistics of the National Association of Sustainable Mobility, from 2016 to 2019 for new vehicles in the Colombian market, Andemos (2021). Merkuryeba (2019) proposes procedures between techniques that allow a comprehensive approach to forecasts and where the methods complement each other, it is through the use of the methodology in Markov chain models (Kiral and Uzun 2017), plus the methodology of the time series analysis (Stevenson et al 2015), which with a complementary approach, can reach a more detailed and comprehensive level of analysis for the statement about the future of the variable of interest: vehicle market sales for business management.The results showed that Markov chains were very useful in long-term analysis for sales forecasting and their analysis by market segmentation, for this the sales level is ranked according to the technique of Pareto. Another important contribution to the Markov chain in business management corresponds to the analysis disaggregated by sales rankings, for example in ranking 1 (first 5 brands), was obtained an expectation of value defined at 67.1% of the total sales level, also an internal analysis of this percentage ranking was carried out. Complementarily, for the alternative of times series analysis; we start from the analysis of the demand, where a seasonal behavior of vehicle sales is detected. Rockwell and Davis (2016) and Stevenson et al (2015), establish a procedure for estimating and eliminating seasonal components by using the seasonal index. Additionally, Weller and Crone (2012) and Lau et al (2018), recommend two common alternatives to measure forecast error and making decisions to selected the technique more adequate for business management: mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), finally, the result of the three techniques developed: moving average, exponential smoothing, and weighted moving average, the simple exponential smoothing, optimized through MAPE minimization is the selected technique, with which short and medium-term forecasts are defined.This study contributes directly to decision-making in the context of the marketing of new vehicles, as well as in academic settings in relation to research processes in data series under the configuration of big data. In this sense, it was demonstrate that the behavior of sales, segmented by market levels according to the participating brands, can be transformed into estimates of future behavior that establishes an orienting mapping of business objectives with respect to the possible level of participation in quotas of market. Finally, the methodological scheme under an epistemological perspective supported by technical decisions, represent an academic contribution of great relevance for business management, where is recommended to use the time series techniques for short and medium-term forecasts, while Markov chains for the prediction and analysis of the sales structure in medium to long term forecasts.
Keywords: Big Data, Forecasting, Markov Chain, Times series analysis, Business management
Cite this paper: