Exploring the Influence of Pantone Color Trend Report on Design Communication in the Fashion Industry: a Long-term Comparative Study

Abstract

As a significant factor influencing markets and consumer choices, color occupies an essential role in the fashion world. While Pantone’s seasonal color forecasts for New York Fashion Week claim growing industry influence, existing studies lack long-term analyses of their effectiveness across color categories. This study aimed to address this gap by adopting a long-term perspective and comparing the prevalence of Pantone colors in Vogue garments over time from 2015 to 2023. Employing big data techniques, the study was conducted in three phases: (1) extracting and filtering relevant images from Vogue’s official website using algorithms like YOLOv3; (2) isolating garment regions through clothing segregation and summarizing garment colors into five-color palettes using the k-means clustering algorithm; and (3) applying the CIEDE 2000 color-difference formula to measure the discrepancies between Pantone’s representative colors and garment color palettes from Vogue. Key findings reveal three insights: first, there are no consistent pattern of Pantone’s colors influencing the fashion colors of the same or subsequent years, with significant discrepancies observed in several instances. Second, the overall adoption rate of Pantone colors in Vogue declined over time, suggesting diminishing influence. Third, the percentages of color usage of Classic Colors is higher than these of Fashion Colors. These discrepancies suggest limitations in Pantone’s trendsetting role, potentially attributable to designers prioritizing uniqueness over standardization and audiences favoring stable Classic Colors. Methodological constraints—notably the exclusive focus on Vogue US—may further explain weak correlations. This study underscores the need for forecasters like Pantone to adapt strategies to evolving industry dynamics, balancing standardization with designers’ demands for differentiation. For practitioners, it highlights the growing divide between commercial color democratization and haute couture’s emphasis on exclusivity.

Keywords: Pantone Color, Influence quantification, Machine learning, Comparative study, Color communication

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe1006326