Detecting Ambiguity Aversion in Cyberattack Behavior to Inform Cognitive Defense Strategies

Abstract: Adversaries (hackers) attempting to infiltrate networks frequently face uncertainty in their operational environments. This research explores the ability to model and detect when they exhibit ambiguity aversion, a cognitive bias reflecting a preference for known (versus unknown) probabilities. We introduce a novel methodological framework that (1) leverages rich, multi-modal data from human-subjects red-team experiments, (2) employs a large language model (LLM) pipeline to parse unstructured logs into MITRE ATT&CK-mapped action sequences, and (3) applies a new computational model to infer an attacker’s ambiguity aversion level in near-real time. By operationalizing this cognitive trait, our work provides a foundational component for developing adaptive cognitive defense strategies.

Keywords: decision making, ambiguity, cognitive biases, cybersecurity, human-computer interaction, predictive models

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe1007038

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