Investigating Time Pressure for the Empirical Risk Analysis of Socio-Technical Systems in ATM

Abstract

Current practices of risk analysis of novel socio-technical systems rely on the subjective judgment of experts. With a view on the complex interactions between human operators and the environment in ATM, a method is needed for gaining empiric evidence directly from operations. Risk analysis that bases on Human-In-The-Loop-Simulations offer a promising approach by providing an environment in which the novel system can be applied safely. An inherent disadvantage is the effort needed to cope with the strict safety targets in ATM, e.g. 1.88E-8 accidents per operating hour in which safety metrics are subject to the statistic problem of Right Censoring. This paper presents our novel concept to modify conditions of the simulation for gaining a calibrated acceleration effect by which the probability of safety metrics can be estimated from a shorter experimental period. This is motivated by the methodologies of Accelerated Life Testing, in which the Mean-Time-To-Failure of products is forwarded into the experimental period by applying calibrated steps of stress-load. We developed an experimental design that applies a procedure for the induction of a calibrated time-pressure for the stimulation of human error. The results of the proof-of-concept-study show controllable stress-reactions of the test persons.

Keywords: Risk Analysis, Socio-technical Systems, Air Traffic Management, Safety Assessment, Accelerated Life Testing, Time Pressure

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe100606