Projection of the Future of the Green Savings Account Product in a Financial Institution
Authors: Omar Paul Páez Almeida, Ana Alvarez Sanchez, Alexis Suarez Del Villar Labastida
Abstract: The new financial product that enters the Ecuadorian market, this product is called Green Savings Account belonging to a bank. Due to the fact that at present there is no history of projections for the following years due to the short life of this product, it is essential to know what its behavior will be in the future using scientific and statistical methods, which is why the forecast of the green account until 2024 will help in the annual planning of the financial institution, by providing relevant information that allows improving the profitability of the company, not only in the short term but also in the long term. The proposal began with an analysis of short-term forecasts using time series models, and it was found that the method of weighted moving averages using the Microsoft Excel SOLVER tool is ideal for this work, with a mean absolute deviation of 173 counts. . This previous study allowed the real demand data to be statistically modeled and easy to handle to determine long-term projections, this will be done using the Minitab and SPSS software, simulating here different linear and non-linear regression models. Finally, it was found that the exponential regression model is the ideal one to carry out the forecast of the product, since it has the highest level of confidence of all the analyzed models of 73.8%, thus projecting a growth of 470.79% for the month of January of year 2024 comparing with the real demand of the month of January of the year 2021.
Keywords: historical data, forecast, regression, time series.
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