The Effect of Paperboard Package Shape on Consumers’ Inferences about Chocolate Product Contents

Abstract

In unplanned in-store purchases, the package shape serves as a crucial visual cue for inferring the physical characteristics of the contents. While prior research has accumulated significant insights into the mechanisms for estimating physical quantities like volume and weight from shape, qualitative and structural aspects (such as the “arrangement of contents”) have not been examined. This study focuses on the risk that discrepancies between consumers' perceived arrangement images and the actual content (expectancy disconfirmation) may undermine repurchase intent. Using paper boxes for chocolate products, we examined how outer box shape influences consumers' “arrangement inferences” and “usage judgments.” A web survey was conducted with 53 individuals in their twenties using nine plain-box designs as stimuli. Model comparisons using generalized estimating equations (GEE) revealed asymmetry in consumer information processing depending on task characteristics. Specifically, arrangement inference relies on relatively simple and immediate processing based on a single dimension (e.g., width) or shape type, whereas usage judgment (for self/others) tends to involve more elaborate processing, integrating multiple dimensions and category information. Furthermore, stratified analysis by purchase frequency and gender revealed that as experience accumulates, the information referenced during inference and judgment tends to become more complex. These results suggest that discrepancies often arise between the careful deliberation involved in purchase decisions and immediate processing of arrangement inferences. Therefore, in package design, it is essential that the shape and category consistently convey the same meaning across both processes.

Keywords: Packaging, Consumer Inference, Expectancy Disconfirmation

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe1007747