The Sunk Cost Dividend: Anticipatory Commitment, Willingness to Pay, and Behavioral Activation in Flat-Rate Urban Mobility

Abstract

Behavioral economics has long characterized the sunk cost effect as a cognitive error — the irrational persistence in a course of action because of costs already incurred, irrespective of prospective value. This paper proposes an inversion of that framing. Drawing on behavioral log data, post-experiment survey responses (n = 237), and in-depth interview transcripts from a three-week commercial flat-rate mobility experiment in a high-density metropolitan district of western Tokyo, we identify a distinct behavioral mechanism we term anticipatory commitment: the state of structured behavioral readiness that pre-payment creates before a product is first used. Participants who paid 2,000 JPY in advance for a Digital Mobility Pass integrating three transport modes exhibited systematic pre-use scheduling, exhaustive mid-experiment optimization, and explicit value-maximization behavior. Willingness-to-pay data reveal a commercial ceiling of approximately 3,000– 5,000 JPY — a pricing corridor that covers operating costs without public subsidy. The central argument is that the pre-payment structure of a flat-rate mobility pass is not merely a revenue model; it is a behavioral intervention that converts latent urban exploration intent into structured temporal commitment. Free-of-charge trial alternatives would not produce this effect.

Keywords: Anticipatory Commitment, Sunk Cost, Willingness to Pay, Behavioral Activation, MaaS, Mental Accounting, Flat-Rate Mobility, Pre-Payment Design

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe1008148