Climate Threats and Resilience Assessment of Road and Railway Networks: Scenario Analysis for 2025, 2030, 2050

Abstract

Road and railway networks are significantly impacted by climate change, facing various climate extremes on different scales (de Miranda Pinto et al., 2018, Hooper and Chapman, 2012, Nemry and Demirel, 2012)Forecasting the future impacts on these essential transport and logistics links, vital for human lives, goes beyond likelihood and risk severity. Resilience, a key factor, is evaluated uniquely in this study. We employ Bayesian network analysis to assess the strength of road and railway systems in relation to various climate-induced threats under changing climatic conditions. (Zhou et al., 2017). This research model explicitly impacts road networks for 2025, 2030, and 2050 by analysing the likelihood of occurrences, the extent of damage, and overall resilience.Understanding the urgency of these impacts is essential for proactive planning and policymaking. This study, with its comprehensive framework that integrates various factors influencing the resilience of transportation networks, is a proactive step. It highlights the importance of incorporating resilience assessments into infrastructure planning and management, which will help mitigate potential disruptions and ensure the continued functionality and reliability of transport networks in the face of climate change.

Keywords: Climate Resilience, Road Network Assessment, Climate Change Impact, Scenario Analysis, Infrastructure Adaptation

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe1005559