Human-Centered Risk Scenario Modelling for Urban and Infrastructure Resilience

Abstract

Cities and infrastructure networks are increasingly exposed to interconnected risks that propagate across physical, digital and organizational boundaries. Traditional risk registers and isolated analyses do not capture this dynamic and multi-domain behavior. This paper proposes a human-centered risk scenario modelling methodology that integrates process logic, spatial dependencies, human roles and regulatory constraints into a unified architectural framework. The approach extends classical bow-tie analysis, introduces modular behavioral structures and applies human-factors principles, particularly situational awareness, to interpret evolving risk conditions. A prototype implementation demonstrates how the methodology can be embedded in an enterprise architecture environment to support coherent scenario reasoning. The proposed method provides a conceptual foundation for strengthening urban resilience through clearer causal understanding, improved situational awareness and more informed decision-making.

Keywords: Human-centered Risk Modelling, Scenario-based Analysis, Urban And Infrastructure Resilience

DOI: 10.54941/ahfe1007961